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UFC Fight Night predictions, picks, parlay today for Tai Tuivasa vs. Ciryl Gane

After a week off, the Ultimate Fighting Championship heads across the pond to Paris, France!

Headling the event is France’s own Cyril Gane, who is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Francis Ngannou for the heavyweight championship at UFC 270.

Of course, we have fight breakdowns and analysis for UFC Fight Night today.

The card is slate started early in the day at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Let’s get into our UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for today.

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UFC Fight Night predictions and picks today

Ciryl Gane (-550) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+440)

Knock out or bust spot for Tai Tuivasa as he faces Ciryl Gane. As a +440 underdog, that will be easier said than done as Gane has never been finished in his K1 Kickboxing background or in his MMA career.

Gane just avoids heavy punches like few we have seen in the past. There is a place for longshot underdog bets like Tuivassa; a shot here is more than defensible. For me, this will be a part of the parlay, -280 to advance to the second round is a great builder for our bet.

UFC Fight Night picks

Tuivasa/Gane starts round two -280 (FanDuel)

Marvin Vettori vs. Robert Whittaker

In an Israel Adesanya-less world, these two jockey for position as the best 185lb fighter in the world. Unfortunately for them, Adesanya is the undisputed king of the middleweights for the foreseeable future.

This fight is an interesting one to bet, as Marvin Vettori hasn’t been controlled on the ground much in the UFC. He will probably hunt for takedowns of his, own and he had shown off some solid submission skills in the past. He would be wise to get that going again as a part of his game.

Robert Whittaker and Marvin Vettori face off
Robert Whittaker and Marvin Vettori face off
Zuffa LLC

Expect plenty of cage pushing in this one en route to a three-round decision. It could end in victory for Vettori, but a split-decision loss is my read on it. Look for the judges to be involved here at -250 (71.43% of the time implied) or better.

UFC Fight Night picks

Fight goes the distance -250 (BetMGM)

Betting on Sports?

Charles Jourdain vs. Nathanial Wood

At 145lbs, Charles Jourdain battles Nathanial Wood. The earlier number on this fight was better, -135, compared to where it is now. Regardless, I am still willing to bet on Jourdain based on his impressive performance against Shane Burgos.

In a loss, Jourdain had his career-best performance, outstriking Burgos 113-42. Wood is taking the step up in competition here; fighting Charles Rosa last time should be completely different stylistically. If he lost most striking exchanges to Casey Kenney, Jourdain should have his way on the feet.

Look for Jourdain to finish this one inside the distance at a pretty high clip, too.

UFC Fight Night picks

Charles Jourdain ML -144 (FanDuel)

UFC Fight Night parlay today

This bet was placed at FanDuel Sportsbook.

+497: Joudain -144 + Imavov/Buckley goes the distance +160 + fight starts round 2 Gane/Tuivasa -280

A note…

  • Nassourdine Imavov has been to two decisions in his UFC career, and Joaquin Buckley has only been to one. Forget all of that because these two are durable and tough to finish. This is one of the better bets on the card, and +160, is the best price on the market. This one goes to decision significantly more than 38.46% of the time (+160 odds). The projection for this one was +108, giving us a 10% edge.

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