Creating variety of rosters aids DFS odds
The Madman is a lot of things, but we like to think “boring” isn’t one of them. One trait we have to fight off potential boredom is our preference for variety.
We like a robust supply of at least two different flavors of coffee, so we can rotate from day to day. We alternate multiple shampoos on each shower visit. We roster various scented candles between which we cycle use. (Yeah, that’s right, we burn candles in our home office. What of it?).
We even field dozens of fantasy teams each year, just to make sure we have as many opportunities as possible to form the perfect roster.
So it should come as no surprise that we also field multiple entries in daily-format contests each week. After all, the best way to win a crap shoot is to take as many shots as you can.
It gets harder as the playoffs progress, as the number of games dwindle and take with it the depth of fantasy choices in the player pool.
We’re down to our last full-roster weekend — the Super Bowl is a one-game DFS slate without a full roster. With just two games, there aren’t many directions in which to go. And since we start every DFS roster with a quarterback, we’ll do the same this week.
Our two favorites are Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. But they also will be everyone’s favorites. Nevertheless, as the slates get shorter, avoiding high-usage rates gets more difficult, so we’re not hyper-focused on creating a contrarian roster. Having to take deep shots on cheap players will help take care of that on its own.
Yet we still like the idea of Patrick Mahomes having a performance like Willis Reed’s hobbled win or Michael Jordan’s “flu game.” We don’t think it’s likely, but we’re not going to completely ignore it. And the Brock Purdy Cinderella story is a lot of fun too, so we want a bit of exposure there to cover all our bases.
So, 70 percent of our rosters will include either Hurts or Burrows, 20 percent will have Mahomes and 10 percent will turn to Purdy — with appropriate wide receivers and tight ends paired with our chosen QB in each.
Pairing Burrows with Ja’Marr Chase is quite expensive, so our prime roster instead has Hurts ($9,200) paired with tight end Dallas Goedert ($6,400). Chris McCaffrey ($9,000) sounds confident in his health, and Elijah Mitchell is banged up and made a huge clock-management mistake last week, so we like CMC projections.
We can’t resist one flagship receiver, and since we found an Eagles stack without A.J. Brown, we’ll add Chase ($8,600). We do love our Bengals this week, so put Joe Mixon ($8,100) on the squad as well.
The rest is filler with what we can afford: Quez Watkins ($4,800) Ray-Ray McCloud ($4,600), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,100) and the Bengals’ defense/special teams ($4,000).
That gives us our first roster, with plenty more to follow.
Patrick Mahomes QB, Chiefs, vs. Bengals (FanDuel $8,500/DraftKings $7,600)
We’re expecting something akin to the Mahomes we saw in the second half last week against the Jaguars, which wasn’t great. There is a reason most players miss time with a high ankle sprain.
Ja’Marr Chase WR, Bengals, at Chiefs (FD $8,600/DK $7,600)
Worth paying up for him. Has scored in double-digits in half-PPR (FanDuel) in all but one of his past nine games. He is one of the league’s top deep threats, and the Chiefs gave up more pass plays of 20-plus yards than any team this season.
A.J. Brown WR, Eagles, vs. 49ers (FD $8,000/DK $7,000)
Makes for a tough call and Chase — hard to afford both. According to Pro Football Focus, Brown has easily the best individual matchups vs. the opposing secondary of any WR this week.
Miles Sanders RB, Eagles, vs. 49ers (FD $6,200/DK $5,200)
The games in which opposing offenses go crazy on the ground vs. the Niners are rare. Even if Philadelphia does find rushing success, Hurts is likely to get a big chunk of that, and the Eagles still have some potential TD vultures (Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, Hurts) to get in Sanders’ way.
Insanity’s daily dose
Daily fantasy league lineup suggestion
Top Prize: $200K
Tot. pot: $1.2M
POS — Player (Price)
QB — Jalen Hurts ($9,200)
RB — Joe Mixon ($8,100)
RB — Christian McCaffrey ($9,000)
WR — Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600)
WR — Quez Watkins( $4,800)
WR — Ray-Ray McCloud ($4,600)
TE — Dallas Goedert ($6,400)
Flex — Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,100)
DEF — Bengals ($4,000)
For late roster chances, follow @NYPost_Loftis and @NYPost_Roto on Twitter
Season risked: $178.55
Season winnings: Drew $37
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