Super Bowl MVP odds, picks, predictions: Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy
The Super Bowl is still more than two weeks away, and we won’t know which two teams will be facing off until late this Sunday. There’s at least one futures market, however, that lets bettors speculate on the eventual title winner at compelling odds: Super Bowl MVP.
Famously, only one player (Chuck Howley) has ever won the award from the losing side, which makes the market a clever way to bet on the winner of the big game without paying as big of a price – assuming you can correctly predict which player will curry the favor of voters.
Here are three players worth betting to win Super Bowl MVP at BetMGM ahead of this weekend:
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (+350)
I’m big on the Bengals to win this weekend in a favorable matchup with the limited Chiefs, so naturally I love his price to win Super Bowl MVP — which is a good bit longer than the title favorite Bengals’ odds to win it all (+240).
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You could say the same thing about Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who is also dealing at +350 with his team priced at +240, though his lingering shoulder injury casts at least some doubt on his potential effectiveness this weekend and beyond. The same can’t be said for Burrow, who has looked sharp all season and was the catalyst for his team’s win in Buffalo last week.
I don’t see many scenarios in which Cincinnati wins it all and Burrow isn’t at the forefront, especially with how central he has been to the Bengals’ revival as a franchise. He almost certainly would have won this award last year if he had found Ja’Marr Chase for a wide-open touchdown on the final play, and he’ll have every opportunity to win it again.
Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers (+650)
This is easily my favorite bet on the board, and while Purdy feels like the least likely of the four remaining quarterbacks to win the award, he deserves a better price than this.
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With the 49ers dealing at +350 to win it all, these odds imply a roughly 2/1 price on Purdy should he lead his side to the big game — which make his odds feel too dismissive of his instrumental he has been to San Francisco even being in this spot in the first place. The rookie passer owns a stellar 13-3 TD-to-INT ratio since taking over full-time, and he leads the remaining field in postseason yards (546) and yards per attempt (9.3).
Quarterbacks have won a whopping 31 of 56 Super Bowl MVP trophies, including 10 of the last 14 and four of the last six. Chances are another quarterback will win the award this year, regardless of which team wins it all. The Niners have playmakers galore who could steal this award from Purdy, but this price is overselling the likelihood of that and underselling the potential of a storybook ending for Mr. Irrelevant.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (100/1)
Speaking of rookies, Purdy isn’t the only first-year player with a chance to win this coveted award — even if Pacheco is clearly a bigger long shot in more ways than one.
The Chiefs are in trouble, with star passer Patrick Mahomes battling a serious ankle injury, which figures to limit his mobility and overall effectiveness this weekend and beyond. That means that Pacheco — who’s averaging nearly 8.0 yards per carry over his last two games — should factor heavily into the game plan this week and potentially in the Super Bowl should Kansas City survive its test this Sunday against the Bengals.
A running back hasn’t won this award since 1998, though a quarterback with a high-ankle sprain hasn’t won it, either. If the Chiefs can somehow muster the strength to win it all, Pacheco has a much better shot of taking home Super Bowl MVP honors than these odds suggest.
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